21st Century Policy Project

Trends from the Issues Summit

Table 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Table 1

1. Consolidation in the private refuse/recycling industry - ownership of management capacity.
2. Greater support for more regional waste facilities - not local.
3. Lack of support for large/mega landfills.
4. Increased consumer awareness of containers/content - household cleaners - containers.
5. Consumer acceptance of/demand for curbside collection - recycling.
6. Increased number options for collection/recycling/composting.
7. Changing demographics - household formations increasing - household size decreasing.
8. Increasing acceptance of the cost of recycling mandates.
9. Too much focus on too little waste - small percent of waste stream.
10. Increased cost of waste collection and transportation lead to increased illegal dumping.
11. Need for early education re: waste, reduction, recycling.
12. Increased traffic/air pollution from multiple pickups - due to waste separation. More trucks picking up more waste.
13. Declining pricing for virgin materials.
14. Recycling industries are maturing - becoming more competitive in pricing of commodities - becoming more efficient.
15. Mechanized pickups - people will fill up collection containers.
16. Markets for recycled materials will continue to be flat.
17. Demand for recycled products will increase.
18. Increase in government procurement of recycled content goods/products.
19. Increasing interest in extended manufacturer responsibility.
20. Increasing understanding of the science and "economics" involved in waste management/recycling.
21. Increased economic activity will lead to appearance of lower diversion.

Table 2

1. More people shredding paper.
2. Electric vehicles - less used oil/filters, lubricants/hoses.
3. More different materials used in auto manufacturing.
4. Energy deregulation - increase renewable energy (heightened visibility - agricultural waste/urban organic biofuel - new market areas.
5. Using new processing technology on different segment of the waste stream
6. Genetic engineering of crops - less agricultural waste (harvesting) - less processing water - less pesticide use.
7. Industry consolidation - message delivery - innovation
8. Globalization and ISO.
9. Increasing number home offices - closed loop homes.
10. Source reduction - impact on the bottom line.
11. Issues are already on business radar screen - increased partnership and "self-regulation" because of impact on the bottom line.
12. Industry moving toward reusable products.
13. Consumer moving more towards convenience/disposable.
14. Range of materials in products affect recycling.
15. Awareness of health/cancer will lead to changes in consumer attitudes.
16. Push to internalize externalities; tax changes.
17. Global warming - increased disaster - increased disaster debris.
18. Decreased competition for local franchises - monopolization - decreased innovation - decrease risk taking.
19. Increase interaction between large companies and state. Will they continue to support recycling?
20. Wall Street driving waste management decisions, especially recycling.
21. MRFs - contamination.
22. Use of PCs.
23. Knowledge of diversion.
24. Fewer landfills, more landfills closing, therefore more distance to transport waste.
25. Competition for the waste stream.
26. Better managed facilities.
27. Young people are more aware of environmental issues.

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Table 3

1. Decreasing number of landfills and greater transport distances, increasing regionalization.
2. Increasing price competition among landfills and effect on alternate management.
3. Increasing cultural (ethnic) diversity in California. Greater understanding of waste management across diversity lines.
4. Increased awareness of connections of waste management across "sectors".
5. Manufacturers using more reused and discarded materials in products.
6. Trend for manufactured goods designed for recycling.
7. Increase in market-driven design for recycling.
8. Decrease in product packaging, countered by theft/safety issues.
9. Decreasing frequency of oil changes.
10. Increasing interest in life-cycle efficiency in e.g. transportation.
11. Increasing education on waste management and Spaceship Earth, with "lag" effect on impact.
12. Decreasing home size/person in future, especially with aging population.
13. Increase in "no-growth" mentality
14. Increased dependence on global marketplace.
15. Increased dependence on technology (e.g. computers).
16. More government control over waste stream.
17. More, better material recovery facilities.
18. Increase in waste-to-energy technologies.
19. Decentralization in energy generation, more distributed energy
20. Increase in technology - less personal connection with environment.
21. Increased production and disposal and recovery of biosolids.
22. Decline in land application of biosolids.
23. Decline in overall percent of materials entering waste stream.
24. Longer life spans and working lives, more convenience items.
25. Increasing electronic commerce.
26. Increased use of compost in agriculture, erosion control, other end uses.
27. Woodwaste being - products.
28. Gap between actual practice and what is known by public is closing.
29. Complacency about existing pollution.
30. More use of landfills after closure.

Table 4

1. Development of packaging - technologies may increase cost of recycling - or not recyclable.
2. Internet - more packaging due to individual orders.
3. Internet - Decrease mail
4. Recognition of limits of recycling
5. Public perception of recycling - is that problem is solved/working - time to move on.
6. Increasing lack of understanding for solid waste solutions.
7. Increase emphasis - producer responsibility - mandated/incentive - consumer driven.
8. Continuing trend to over-package.
9. Increase in confusion between cost of recycled vs. raw material.
10. Decreasing cost of disposal.
11. Decrease in disposal costs will decrease recycling.
12. Increasing divergence between cost of disposal and internalized costs.
13. Impact of globalization (globalized economy)
14. Aging of population will increase need for different packaging.
15. Aging of population will lose interest with solid waste issues.
16. X-generation to hold older generation responsible for waste.

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Table 5

1. Acquisition and merger of companies - waste haulers, processors and end product manufacturers.
2. Increased and excessive packaging.
3. Mail marketing - Junk mail.
4. Increased use of flow control and franchise mechanisms.
5. Increase in electronics in the wastestream (T.V.s, games, appliance, computers and peripherals).
6. Globalization of many issues enables us to spot trends and pick up best practices, business practices.
7. Increased use of lower polluting equipment.
8. Diffusing of the work force - more home business, mobile work place - effects waste collection and types of waste.
9. Increase in new recycling technologies.
10. Stabilized and reduced landfill tipping fees. Recycling based business increase difficulty competing.
11. Shift in out of county disposal as a result of pricing.
12. Virtualization of commerce and society.
13. Deregulation - utility de-monopolization.
14. Centralization of government control of solid waste and other issues.
15. Increased market opportunities for recycling.
16. The value of source reduction will be realized as more effective than recycling.
17. Public looking for solutions to social issues other than from politicians.
18. Declining energy and commodity prices.
19. Substitution of engineered materials for easily recycled materials.
20. Increased collection of commingled recyclables.
21. Increase in contamination of recyclables (with commingled recyclables) - wrong materials decrease value of recycling.
22. Increased collaboration between environmental specialty areas. - Air, water, land, energy issues.
23. Integration of collection, processing and marketing - recyclables and trash.
24. Increase in the perception of what constitutes a maximum recycling rate.
25. Decrease in community based non-profit reuse recycling service providers.
26. Recyclables will be generated at different types of retail locations (fast food/public events) - different increase recyclables.
27. More raw food use at household level.
28. Increased exportation (out of state) of garbage, decrease subsidy for Waste Board.
29. Increased constraints on local government funding and increased responsibility to provide services.
30. New Governor/new opportunities in Sacramento.
31. Shift in demographics.
32. Growth of corporate power.
33. Global warming.

Table 6

1. Cheaper disposal/landfill cost.
2. More short term political thinking.
3. Higher disposal costs.
4. Growing disparity throughout California in disposal cost.
5. Increased product complexity inception of transforming organics (nonburning).
6. Consolidations and mergers and the threat on small business.
7. Toward a second thought to whether recycling is the answer.
8. Worldwide demand for recycling material is down.
9. California manufacturing waste will go down.
10. Lot of electronic waste.
11. More waste on residential less on commercial.
12. More government involvement in recycling i.e. incentives.
13. Increased user fee systems.
14. Increased shifting from residential to commercial.
15. Wasteful packaging by retailer for marketing.
16. Trends on packaging excess down.
17. Marketing sales of single use products i.e. razor, cameras.
18. SKIPPED
19. Virgin raw materials are at an all time low cost.
20. Higher cost to deliver incremental diversion.
21. Democratics in Sacramento are controlling government.
22. Increase in capitol cost to capture the remaining 15% of the 50% goal.
23. More regionalization in disposal.
24. Increase in hauling out of state.
25. Consumer will continue to want new vs. recycled.
26. Growing interest in source reduction.
27. The cost to process recyclable materials will be still more costly.
28. An increase of construction and demolition waste.
29. Continued efficiency (improvement) of what industry is already doing, i.e., recycling, diverting, etc.
30. Increasing ADC - Alternative Daily Cover.
31. Increase in circumventing.

Table 7                                                                                                         top

1. Increase in plastic and composite materials (autos, white goods, home building materials)
2. Continuous promotion to be a "throw away" society - obsolescence by design.
3. Consolidation, mergers and cost control causes lower cost/increased products to be produced (i.e. waste management is not a priority).
4. Increase in Internet shopping will create increase in packaging.
5. Will different attitudes on waste management become even more divergent based on economic status?
6. Increasing lower income populations (waste management is a low priority).
7. Super consumption amongst affluent populations/affluent populations growing.
8. Electronic commerce (billing, home banking) potential for waste reduction?
9. A global economy dictates how we operate our businesses.
10. The price points for recycled products and durable products (designed for sustainability) is high and is a disincentive economically.
11. Carbon credits will become a bigger issue and we could buy BTU's for future use.
12. The internal combustion engine will at some time in the 21st Century be a thing of the past; will create new waste streams
13. Large corporations are pushing for stronger environmental legislation.

Table 8

1. Changing demographics (increased ethnic diversity) change composition and quantity of trash - requires a reassessment of how message is constructed and delivered.
2. Packaging continues to increase.
3. Increasing business competition causes increased need for increased primary packaging for marketing purposes (per capita waste increasing).
4. Increased corporate consolidation and centralized decision making.
5. Increased amount of plastics and difficulty to recycle. Less newsprint.
6. Technological change/consumerism change waste composition (home computer example) VCR-DVD.
7. Increased export and/or import of waste due to regionalization of markets, and transportation options.
8. Increasing interdependence of global markets.
9. Increased need for Board to reconsider its role. (needs faster response to changes going on) Increase pace of change.
10. Integrated waste system is developing and complexity is evolving. This equals business opportunities.
11. Increasing densification of urban areas resulting in increased multifamily housing (difficulty in recycling).
12. Decreasing agricultural land
13. Increased gridlock.
14. A few powerful waste companies will dominate or dictate Board policy.
15. Increasing consciousness causing demand for new and better solutions.

Table 9

1. Increase in multi-material packaging.
2. Cyclical nature of economy (peaks and valleys) increase of frequency and intensity of the peaks (graphic used here could not be transcribed)
3. Continued increase in number household units and business units - more waste, individual printers, desks, offices, fax machines.
4. Computers increase efficiency and decrease waste - increased resource efficiency due to technological advancement.
5. Despite recycling more, producing more waste.
6. Kids are more educated about recycling, environment.
7. Inability to predict trends accurately - thought that landfill prices would go up with landfill crisis but they have gone down.
8. Mega landfills and mega waste facilities are increasing.
9. Multimedia (water, air, land) approach wasn't around before.
10. Impact of consolidation of waste companies industry and broader impact to all companies BMW merger.
11. Increase in home meal (frozen dinners, etc) replacement.
12. Younger generation talks the talk but doesn't walk the walk/buying WAY more
13. Increase introduction of new resins/plastics.
14. Worldwide economy.
15. Increasing impact of new regulations.
16. Increase in population.
17. Decreased enforcement of regulations.
18. More use of cost benefit analysis (CBA) and quality of the CBA tools.
19. More people are supportive of environment
20. People are pacified by recycling and they think they have done it all.

Table 10

1. Increase in co-mingled collection of recyclables.
2. Decreased markets for recyclables.
3. Higher landfill fees in future.
4. In past 5 years some counties have been lowering fees.
5. Increase in quantities of collection of curbside recyclables and localities doing so.
6. Increasing diversity of population - different values.
7. People believe recycling is right.
8. There is an economic benefit which affects recycling.
9. Economy affects recycling behavior.
10. Consolidation of solid waste companies - larger buying up smaller.
11. Consolidation of solid waste facilities.
12. Closing down of recycling facilities based on profitability.
13. Development of mega landfills
14. Increased post-closure land use.
15. Proportion of plastics and paper going up. Glass is going down.
16. Increased export of waste outside of California.
17. Increased cost of recovery (specifically LABOR).
18. Less plastic recycling due to lower oil prices.
19. More home composting, yard trimmings.
20. Youth will become more aware of recycling.
21. Continued growth of the "throw away society".
22. The better the economy, the less likely will be a reuse consciousness.
23. Increase toward reuse by lower income people.
24. Increasing homelessness.
25. Increased regulatory oversight.
26. Increase toward local control.
27. Large corporations moving toward greater manufacturer responsibility.
28. Increasing technologies for solid waste management.

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Table 11

1. Appointing authority political leadership has distinct impact on Board - different philosophy waste issues high profile.
2. More products made of recyclable material easier to acquire - process.
3. More recyclable material availability
4. More recycled paper going out of country. California continues to be major player - ports.
5. Demand for higher quality recyclables.
6. Landfill prices will remain consistent or decrease.
7. Recyclable collection co-mingling increasing which leads to lower quality.
8. Improved public participation in recyclable efforts; limit of convenience saturated.
9. Consumer convenience will play major role in recycling decision making (i.e. on-line bulk etc.)
10. Consumers more educated and supportive of recycling as preferred.
11. "Pay as you throw" fees based on volume waste.
12. Increased costs to (WTE increase) meet 50% goal and on-going planning.
13. Demographics of state population education impacts (Spanish speaking) more waste.
14. Increased recognition of diversity of waste types and associated issues.
15. Increasing need for markets re: recyclables?
16. Air quality concerns will impact delivery and transportation.
17. Less industrial and agricultural and more commercial and residential waste.

Table 12

1. Increased population, age and diversity
2. Volatility of markets for recycled materials.
3. Effect of changes in global economy and effect on markets.
4. Consolidation of waste industry.
5. Reduced interest on recycling source reduction etc. in waste industry (economically driven)
6. Increase interest in source reduction by manufacturer/industry
7. Export of materials (recycled) to other countries (Asia).
8. Increase in environmental regulations.
9. Nature of regulations shifting (e.g. ISO 14000)
10. Trend to go to front end of "pipe" local government involvement. "Locals telling state "enough".
11. Local government squeezed between increased citizen demands for services and unwillingness to pay.
12. Modern solid waste management increasing in complexity which leads to more training.
13. Less and larger landfills.
14. Global warming and landfill gas.
15. Increased opportunities for use of landfill gas.
16. Internet commerce and increase in packaging - increased labeling and disclosure - increase in safety packaging for consumer.
17. Increase in number of people employed - increase in two income "families".
18. Increase in rebuilding of infrastructure (C & D)
19. Increased emphasis on "basics" in schools will lead to less environmental lessons.
20. Increase in environmental awareness in society and education
21. Increase in paperless communication via Internet.
22. Increase in convenience foods (plastic packaging)
23. Increase in amount of information available.
24. Increase in transport of waste to mega-fills "through communities".
25. Changes in agriculture practices.
26. Emerging green waste composting technologies.

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Table 13

1. Increasing greenwaste/organics - decreasing demand.
2. Increasing use of plastics and durable products.
3. Increasing waste generation even with successful recycling and other efforts.
4. Increasing recycling awareness willingness but lack of understanding of whole picture.
5. Shift to automated/co-mingled recyclables.
6. Increasing landfill space.
7. Decreasing landfill prices - everything more expensive than landfills.
8. Shift to business policy of no use of landfills.
9. Increasing awareness of environmental justice - NIMBY/BANANA decision making.
10. Heightened public concern of formerly benign/non-hazardous waste sources.
11. Increasing technological obsolescence - shorter life span with decreased cost.
12. Rapid consolidation of waste management industry.
13. Increase "value" in "disposable" products - single use.
14. Increased international pressure for producer responsibility.
15. Intensification of conflict in waste management industry to bottom-line vs. environment focus.
16. Increased recognition of need for market for recyclable materials.
17. Increased scrutiny of environmental impacts of recycling.
18. Increased plastic packaging.
19. Decreasing political will for environmental issues.
20. Increasing cost of disposal - makes recycling more profitable.
21. Increasing pressure of local government to provide services/compliance - post Prop. 13/LEA impact.
22. Increased local markets for recycled end product - instead of off shore markets
23. More acceptable of global warming impacts.

Table 14

1. Increasing diversity in population
2. People are beginning to recognize that they have responsibility.
3. The waste industry is beginning consolidation.
4. Privatization is occurring.
5. Decreased access to school children through the education system.
6. Increase in information overload and complexity.
7. Increase in NOPE (not on planet earth).
8. Increasing global economy.
9. Increase in regionalization.
10. Increasing competition for the waste.
11. Increased dependence by public agencies on tipping revenue.
12. Public education on the environment seems to be declining.
13. Recycling now being viewed as "passe".
14. Increased skepticism by the public relative to benefits of recycling.
15. We have become a consumer oriented society.
15. b. Increase in reuse and voluntary simplicity.
16. Decrease in quality candidates for government.
17. Population looking toward the business community for solutions. (vs. government).
18. Decreased public confidence in government (lack of knowledge).
19. Increase in government agency marketing public relations.
20. Continued regulatory change.
21. Trend to parallel publish health and environmental issues (Increased liability).
22. Increased misuse of risk assessment by industry.
23. There is an increase in risk based environmental decision making.
24. Greater interest in organic food, etc.
25. Increased military base closing and reuse.
26. More perspective resource management and away from addressing past practices - Shift from past clean up to a sustained focus.
27. Increased emphasis on sustainability.
28. Increased lifecycle/energy analysis.
29. Increase Democratic appointees.

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Table 15

1. Change in packaging materials, increased use of plastics.
2. Increased competition for remaining markets.
3. Increased immigrant population - change in demographics language/culture - environmental education. Increased challenges as a result.
4. Consolidation (increase) of MSW and recycling industry.
5. Increased privatization of services.
6. Rise in conflicting definitions/laws among public agencies.
7. Growth of product markets - commercial and industrial activity.
8. Decreasing internal packaging - large count or bulk packaging.
9. (#7 due to) Increase affluence - more disposable income/economic growth.
10. Increased globalization of economics - rules some similar.
11. Increased import of goods and associated wastes.
12. Increased realization of individual community needs.
13. Increased difficulty in siting solid waste facilities and recycling.
14. Changing expectations of the public wrt programs (more) - willingness to pay less
15. Increase product standardization - for global market. Some companies - low end other high performance dominates.
16. Increased boutique type products - market differentiation less function difference.
17. Improvement in recovery/sorting technology.
18. Increased reliance on technology, e.g., home computers - creates new solid waste streams to manage/reduce.
19. Longer hauls - creates more political, transport, air pollution issues and siting of transfer stations.
20. Increased mega landfills (drives #19).
21. Increased proliferation of regulation of facilities.
22. Increased workplace safety issues/attention by OSHA.
23. Increase in convenience - demand for - packaging, prepared foods - don't want to separate - this generation.
24. Increase/transition awareness and demands of next generation.
25. Past progress/solved problems need new attention - e.g. anti-litter campaign.
26. Increased busy - ness or pace of society.
27. Increased ability to produce.
28. Increasedrealization always need landfills.
29. Decreasing impact on environment (of landfills).
30. Increased interest in open space - desire for sprawl control - urban infill development.
31. Increased sprawl - regionally.
32. Manufacturer responsibility/stewardship for products and packaging - some increase some decrease.
33. Increase in electronic commerce - World Wide Web.

Table 16

1. Increasing use of the Internet and information products/services being available on the net, products, stuff.
2. Increase of waste generation from recreational activities.
3. Increasing cultural diversity within state population (barriers)
4. Landfill diversion is flattening. Inability of state to meet 50% goal.
5. Decreasing public/political interest in solid waste issues.
6. Increasing overregulation of environmental and waste agencies; (apathy) confusion.
7. Business and public becoming more selective in solid waste issues and involvement and compliance.
8. Increasing migration of glass/aluminum etc. containers to plastics.
9. Increasing partisanship in political decision-making.
10. Market for recyclables (remain and will remain so for near future) volatile and occasionally depressed.
11. Increasing use of recycled content in manufacturing (plastics, paper, glass, tires, etc.)
12. Increasing use of technology in communications, obtaining information, sharing information… (beepers, car phones, etc.)
13. Increase in illegal dumping and littering especially bulky items, white goods, furniture, tires, mattresses, etc.
14. Increasing illegal dumping of household hazardous waste (including illegal drugs).
15. Increasing trend in defining what is hazardous! (white goods materials, oil, etc.)
16. Increased permitted landfill capacity (as opposed to recent past)
17. Increased private ownership/operation of landfills.
18. Increasing trend to larger, regional (remote) landfills.
19. Increase in "reuse" as compared to recycling. (Packaging as example) transportation
20. Increase in regional solid waste joint power authorities.
21. Increasing transportation of solid waste to regional/long distance - landfills.
22. Continuing difficulty in communicating source reduction issues.
23. Continuing need for increased funds for education on solid waste issues.

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Table 17

1. Increasing number of products delivered to site (home and business)
2. Consolidation of industry - core functions (recycling)
3. Increasing disconnect between generator and their waste. What happens after garbage collection day?
4. Increasing restrictions on local government ability to raise revenue for providing services.
5. Elderly care changing home waste stream (sharps, etc.)
6. Increasing public and business need on safety and quality of recycled material as feedstock and product.
7. Increasing electronic commerce should reduce volume of written waste.
8. Increase in difficult materials to recycle (tire, metals, batteries)
9. Diminishment of environmental concern by public.
10. Increasing international controls WTO (World Trade Organization?) agreements (or other agreements) making it difficult for states to reach goals, can't structure own policies - such as parts per million.
11. Decreasing number of suppliers due to consolidation reducing options. Impacting opportunity to buy recycled.
12. Increase in public reliance on government to solve waste problems - shifting responsibility to government.
13. Decreasing priority of solid waste over other environmental concerns.
14. Increasing consolidation of solid waste industry and retail manufacturers jeopardize ability to recycle - pushing need for government to promote.
15. Increase of large public retirement funds using social responsibility as investment opportunity. Pressure stockholders.
16. Increase in mining wastes from landfills.
17. Increase in regulatory trends towards manufacturer take back of used product.

Table 18                                                                                                         top

1. Volumes of recovered materials are increasing - stimulate markets.
2. Mix of materials - landfill may become less biodegradable.
3. Volumes and types of housing will change creating more green waste.
4. As agricultural lands decrease, will impact purchase/use of compost.
5. Change in demographics will affect waste flow; denser population create less green waste and a potential for more contaminated recyclables.
6. New/changing technologies creating new types of packaging/materials to manage.
7. Manufacturers' responsibility - smaller packaging therefore less waste.
8. Southern California and California demographics becoming more multi-ethnic with changing culture toward waste management. Overall change in cultures may bring less wasteful practices in waste management.
9. Shift in responsibility for managing waste to the manufacturer/producer.
10. Increased pressure to recycle will lead to development of new materials, e.g., in packaging that could have public health impacts and other unforeseen consequences.
11. Transformation costs for recyclable materials may exceed the transformation benefits.
12. Communities are becoming more interested in the decision-making process for solid waste management.
13. Change from manufacturing to service economy will impact types of materials we manage.
14. Transferring source of solid waste generation from manufacturing sites to residential homes.
15. Decrease in school achievement (lower scores) may lead to less emphasis on environmental education in the schools.
16. Diminished state funding for recycling education will encourage voluntary responsibility from industry to provide the resources.
17. Media coverage of recycling is declining and becoming more negative in scope therefore "the landfill crisis is over".
18. Import/export of medical waste (and other solid wastes) across the ocean and state boundaries may increase California responsibility and federal response.
19. Existing landfill capacity is declining.
20. Consolidation of solid waste industry and privatization of solid waste management.
21. "Less bang for our buck" to recycle more/attain last 5-10% of diversion.
22. Aging of the population will change the types of pharmaceuticals that end up in our water and affect treatment of sewage waste. There will be differences, therefore, in how sewage waste (biosolids) can be used.
23. Global efforts in solid waste management may offer new models for how to manage waste, and enable us to offer models to other countries.
24. Shift of some transformation sites closer to residential sites.

Trends Graphics

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Last updated: October 18, 2007